International issues weigh on performance
The Canadian economy is expected to remain on a relatively slow growth path in the coming months, with both international and domestic issues weighing on its performance. Sluggish demand in the U.S. and Europe is dampening international trade prospects and consumer confidence. Meanwhile, Canadian consumers are revisiting their spending plans during a period of higher uncertainty, slowing job growth and weak income growth.
Housing market remains healthy
Sales of existing homes in Canada rose in October to the highest level since January confirming Canada’s housing market remains robust despite global market volatility and economic uncertainty. According to statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association, national sales of existing homes rose 1.2% in October from the previous month, building on September’s 2.5% gain.
Low interest rates continue to entice homebuyers and some analysts believe that these rates could open the door for increased activity relative to current levels. However, the subdued economic growth environment and questionable consumer confidence could keep some potential buyers from entering the housing market, despite the attractive rates. Experts anticipate that these forces will effectively cancel each other out, leading to relatively flat sales and price levels for the year ahead.
No rate change in sight
The European sovereign debt crisis and fiscal uncertainty in the U.S. remain the most important topics when it comes to the health of the global economy. While these issues continue to dominate the headlines, the Bank of Canada remains limited in its ability to alter interest rates. The forecast suggests that the Bank of Canada overnight rate will remain at 1% out to the fourth quarter of 2012 and that the 5-year Government of Canada Bond yield is expected to rise to 2.40% by the fourth quarter of 2012.
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